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Renewable Friday: Data! Evidence! vs Consensual Hallucinations

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The worst Global Warming denialists used to be at fossil fuel companies. Today it is the Project 2025 mob at The Heritage Foundation. The clearest evidence of the turnaround comes from the IEA, once a systematic purveyor of outdated information at the behest of oil interests, and now sometimes out in front.

Today’s levels of ambition for renewable capacity vary widely by country Nearly 30 countries, led by China, aim to increase capacity by 2 to 3 times by the end of this decade, representing almost 75% of current global ambitions Explore the data 👉 https://t.co/BF0qqEh4c1pic.twitter.com/DOhVPSQV5h

— International Energy Agency (@IEA) August 8, 2024

That’s what their governments say. It will turn out to be much more than that, as inertia and lack of imagination are overtaken by the reality of the danger and the opportunity.

The IEA used to be laughably behind reality on everything. Now they are publishing real data, but their attitudes are still a problem. See Ultra-Denial, below.

The IEA & OPEC were once closely aligned on energy forecasts, but now have vastly different views on the future of oil. IEA think the world will reach peak oil in 2029, at ~105.6 mbpd. The OPEC cartel see no peak, with oil use rising to 116 mbpd+ in 2045 https://t.co/ORARqM74aLpic.twitter.com/I9lsf1u3A5

— Carbon Tracker (@CarbonBubble) August 6, 2024

If we exclude petroleum as a feedstock for chemicals and plastics, where the carbon goes into the product and isn’t burned, the rest (heating, cars, backup generators) will peak much sooner as heat pump, EV, and battery storage markets take off, and cars will increasingly be able to power homes and businesses during blackouts.

Good morning with good news: "China's clean power expansion is now pushing coal into reverse." China added 102 GW of solar & 26 GW of wind in first half of 2024. Solar additions were up 31% & wind up 12% compared with first half of 2023. China's CO2 went down 1% in Q2 2024! pic.twitter.com/dU654PNq3r

— John Raymond Hanger  (@johnrhanger) August 8, 2024
 

EVs

BMW 1 series is going electric as an affordable EV for younger buyers

BMW’s compact class is going electric. The BMW 1 Series will be transformed into an affordable electric car as the brand looks to attract younger buyers. BMW’s 1 Series and 2 Series will spawn i1 and i2 EV models.

The two new EVs are already in development in Munich. BMW plans to sell the more electric 1 and 2 Series models alongside the gas-powered models, according to sources close to the matter.

The Electric 1 series is expected to launch in 2027, followed by the i2 in 2028. Although they will be sold alongside the gas models, the 1 and 2 series EVs are expected to ride on BMW’s Neue Klasse platform.

BMW speeds past luxury rivals Porsche and Audi as EV sales spike in Q2

As luxury rivals Mercedes, Porsche, and Audi struggled, BMW strengthened its position, with EV sales climbing 22% in the second quarter.

Ultra-Denial

What to Know about Project 2025’s Dangers to Science

Project 2025 would jeopardize federal scientists’ independence and undermine their influence

The Heritage Foundation Tells Rigzone Oil Demand Will Never Peak

Can AI defeat climate misinformation?

No. Real stupidity and determined ignorance can beat Artificial Intelligence every time. For a while.

A team of Australian and British researchers is training an AI model to combat the spread of misleading claims about climate change, write Francisco “A.J.” Camacho and Scott Waldman.

The move could help repurpose AI from an agent of misinformation to a policing force. But it’s a tall order: According to one third-party tracker, fake news websites that use AI have ballooned in recent months. Compounding the problem, social media giants such as Facebook and X have weakened their misinformation safeguards.

Misleading claims about climate change are particularly hard to weed out. Fossil fuel proponents and conservative groups have spent decades sowing public confusion around climate science by using false, misleading or cherry-picked research.

George Monbiot to the IEA’s Reem Ibrahim: “Of course you want to rip down regulations, of course you don’t care about the natural world because you’re from the IEA which is funded by oligarchs & corporations. The IEA refuses to reveal who funds it”#PoliticsLive#PMQspic.twitter.com/rlEgJ4eVAt

— David (@Zero_4) January 24, 2024

That’s the other IEA,

the very right wing Institute of Economic Affairs—a UK group that does indeed refuse to reveal the sources of its funding, as Monbiot says.

(🎩 Matilda Briggs for the clarification)

Fascinating article on the @IEA and the general state of an energy transition caught between stubborn fossil fuels & accelerating clean energy. Also illustrates well how fraught, yet pervasive, attempts to illustrate the fossil status quo as "neutral" are. https://t.co/X8I5pDvXG4

— Felix Heilmann (@HeilmannFelix) August 6, 2024

IEA takes heat as GOP alleges shift from energy security

State of play: House energy committee chair Cathy McMorris-Rodgers and Sen. John Barrasso, the top Republican on the Senate energy panel, allege the body "no longer provides policymakers with balanced assessments."

  • Their new letter says the IEA — founded 50 years ago in response to oil shocks — is now "undermining energy security by discouraging sufficient investment in energy supplies."
  • It sees global oil and gas use peaking this decade under nations' combined "stated" policies.

As I keep pointing out, it will happen faster than predicted as reality overwhelms the obstructionists.

Earth Matters: Permitting bill gets eco-howls; 50°F over normal in Antarctica; Walz, Shapiro for VP?

by Meteor Blades

Independent Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia (l) and Republican Sen. John Barrasso of Wyoming crafted a permitting bill that's getting thumbs down from climate activists.

But getting new transmission lines built has always been politically complicated. These days, utility lobbyists, local governments, environmental restrictions, and rank-and-file Americans in the path of such projects all contribute to a permitting process that can take a decade from proposal to approval. Insular interests, including those of the utilities themselves, mean many proposed or wished-for lines never get built. That is a big problem for the transition.

For example, according to the Berkeley Lab, at the end of last year, there was a 2,600-gigawatt backlog of energy and storage capacity in transmission grid interconnections. Of that, 95% is for solar, wind, and storage. That’s eight times larger than the backlog of 10 years ago. To show how big a deal that is, the entire U.S. grid has a generating capacity of 1,300 gigawatts from ALL sources. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission has recently changed its rules, which will help move things along a little faster. But only a little.

The bill would ease regulatory hurdles and speed up environmental approval timeframes for renewable installations, for new and upgraded transmission lines, and for oil, gas, and coal projects.

Some good, some bad, and some really ugly.


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